The title for this one was going to be “U.S. Stock and Bond Markets Were Lied to Today and They Love It!” Seriously, what you’re about to hear is not a trashing of our Federal Reserve Monetary Policy as much as it is questioning the efficacy of its members who appear to be unable to face the truth. If they pull this month’s long “over-dovishness” stance off, it’ll be the first time a “soft landing” has ever been achieved in the history of the U.S. economy given the circumstances. I do not remember a time when as a country we were dealing with this amount of inflationary pressure and subsequent Policy Errors [which caused the problem out of Washington in the first place] where correcting this volume of mistakes resulted in the complete avoidance of a meaningful economic slowdown – Never! Remember an old Wall St. adage “Pigs Get Slaughtered”! Read on –

But yet Fed Chair, Jay Powell, in his news conference today still talking down any hint of a severe U.S. economic slowdown ahead, or the need to even tap the brakes much in order to thwart a deeper recession. Let’s look further at this issue. There appears to be a classic “Fake It ‘Til You Make It” stance coming from Fed Chair Jay Powell. Surely you jest. I must say the stock market loved Chair Powell’s personal spin on U.S. economic conditions as the stock market soared into the close today, while the bond market mostly slept through all the excitement. And why not for the U.S. bond market? We’re into decades of mostly falling U.S. interest rates and Jay Powell thinks this condition will continue into eternity? Only under a ZERO Growth economy can it continue Jay. Again, where did Jay receive his PhD in Economics? Oops! Turns out Mr. Powell is not a trained Economist at all, he opted for Law School instead.

Should I complain? I made money myself today. I could have made more, but I have very little invested at this point. The reason being I cannot buy into the incompetence of those now running these United States. I’m not even certain who is running the country as far as that goes. Is it Diaper Joe? Or perhaps Susan Rice, or even Barry Obama? Really, who is running the White House? Hunter? I’m not sure but suffice to say I’m having a terrible time with trusting just who is running our country, as well as the individual abilities of whoever that is, running the largest economy in the world. But I like making money – don’t you? Matter of fact, I used to qualify that statement by saying to clients, “I only like making money I can keep”… that always opened their eyes and their mind, for everyone seems to remember when they made money they couldn’t keep and what a disappoint, a let down that was. Honestly, I do not believe I will keep any of the returns I made today…

But is Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell worried??? Not at all! Why worry says Chair Powell, after all – he’s got this!
On the subject of:
– Runaway Inflation??? Not a problem says Chair Powell.
– Supply shocks, including soaring prices for vital oil and natural gas supplies??? Not a problem says Chair Powell.
– The Federal Reserve growing their balance sheet to an unprecedented $9 trillion dollars worth of nothing but sovereign issued bonds bought by our very own U.S. Treasury, for the sole purpose of engineering artificially low (faux) U.S. interest rates??? Not a problem unloading those bonds claims Chair Powell.
See how Chair Jay Powell has got this so far? 🙂

All we hear out of the White House and Congress and Federal Agencies to infinity is how nothing is a problem anymore. You notice that? Suddenly nothing is a problem these idiots can’t handle. What I find the most amusing is that these same goons created all the problems themselves that we’re having to deal with now in this country, and its economy. Every frigging problem we’re now dealing with was born out of a terrible policy decision or indecision because of incompetent lunatics with a Socialist Leftist agenda in Washington, D.C. – every one!

So naturally, my question now for Fed Chair Jay Powel is are you the elusive Superman detailed in the comic books everyone wanted to spot back when I was a kid? And so you’re just Clarke Kent on the weekends? Let’s talk about the reality of the situation our economy is facing because this is going to be no small feat for the Federal Reserve to pull off, that is, avoiding the next U.S. Recession. The first thing we need to recognize is the constant spin coming out of this White House, it’s nothing but placing lipstick on a pig. I’m very concerned about our chances of avoiding recession without wrecking this economic expansion first. It appears to me at this point to be an impossible task. And the longer the Fed denies having to tighten rates, the worse off we are and the deeper the recession required to unwind the froth already built into the monetary system; this unwinding will be necessary in order to right the ship. Hence, I see no path in front of us to tame inflation without destroying a ton of jobs across the country, affecting a ton of lifestyles for a multitude of people. Like oil and water these two conditions – ample job openings and an inflation-fighting Fed cannot, will not, cohabitate for long. We’re past that window, it’s too late as runaway inflation is running too hot now; mostly predicated on the Fed’s reluctance over the past 6-9 months to begin the tightening cycle. Democrats looking for an insurrection? They’ll see an insurrection alright – a real one this time! It’s known as runaway inflation and it’s very sticky. Continuous policy errors originating from the Democrats have insured that U.S. inflation will be sticking around for some time to come.

What You Should Know –
Given the combined scenario of weakness and incompetence at virtually every level inside our Federal government, including its agencies, pulling off a soft landing and avoiding a recession is no longer the “base case” probability IMO. In fact, to this seasoned observer it appears to be an impossibility (at this writing) and I don’t see a Super-hero coming to rescue us, not until the November mid-terms anyway… and that’s a solid 6 months away if that were to even happen.