Sounds like an interesting strategy I suppose, hope it works [for you]. It’s not for me, I was asked recently on a golf course why I wasn’t in the stock market and I summed it up this way – “I’d rather receive 5% on my money with zero probability of a loss than be in U.S. stocks hoping to achieve 10-15% upside with the far greater probability of losing 20-25% on that money. This pretty much is where I am now, being retired and all. It is my opinion that the upside in this market is limited given all the various risks out there beginning but never ending with a yield curve that’s been inverted for going on the better part of two years now? There’s a reason for that and I go into it below [see my remarks on the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet].
Unfortunately, I’ve seen a similar playbook as this but you have to go back to the late 1980’s to find a situation where the stock market continued to rise while unbeknownst to many a problem lurked below the surface, undetected. When the problem finally surfaced it was like SURPRISE! Ugh. What could possibly go wrong here? You can fudge any numbers and it’ll work for awhile anyway. For example, you can claim as the Federal Reserve does that they only count the PCE numbers for inflation which excludes necessities like food and energy; instead focusing in on prices for non-necessities like services. Good idea dumbasses since only 101% of the American people have to consume “food and energy”!
How about the job gains lately? Have you paid attention to our job gains lately? Overwhelmingly the gains are in government jobs, the federal government has been hiring more than private business is hiring. Who pays for all this? You and me, the taxpayers will pay. I don’t work for the government, do you? When government is the largest employer in the country that’s not a sign of a healthy economy folks. Gosh I hate to bring up “Economics 101” again but “I gots” to bring up the most elementary of elementaries here. How many of you went on to complete the college level course known as Economics 102 or 201? Not many I fear, that’s what your federal government is counting on – your ignorance, because they need you to buy in, they want your support while they mismanage the money supply and hence the economy. This whole scenario breeds one Socialist symptom after another. We the tax payers are forced to pay all the salaries for government jobs and when the tax receipts aren’t big enough our government will just print the money, so what’s the problem right? LMAO!
The main issue I see is that our Federal Reserve will not allow market forces to naturally increase interest rates in this country to a level that they would normally accompany a federal government that owes a record-setting $33 trillion plus in debt; resulting from an endless fountain of overspending on stimulus. Instead our Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury Departments are choosing to sit still and try to hide behind an economy wallowing in a glutenous supply of dollars floating around. Again, normally this would be highly inflationary scenario but they’re trying to hide it as much as possible while they sit on an exploded balance sheet totaling $7.4 Trillion [with a “T”] of U.S. Treasury debt. All this while stock prices [especially Tech-related sectors] have been riding a sugar-high leading investors to believe that the situation is something better than it is and that the economy is in better shape than it is. Something is bound to happen to settle this score and return us to some sense of normality and sustainability because the road we have been on under these Socialist Democrat’s beginning in 2020 is anything but sustainable! I’m not certain myself of what shape a next catastrophe might take. Difficult to tell but something has to come along to set the United States economy back on a sustainable track. I like to use the metaphor that a stretched rubber band either snaps in two or retracts back to it’s original position, no other possibilities exist in the real world.
The bottom line is that under Socialism private business gets squeezed out – squeezed out by way of over-regulation, new and higher taxes and government oversight. All power is granted to the central government under Socialism. That’s what we’re witnessing here, we can point to fake “Climate Change” and initiatives to replace fuel with electric vehicles while simultaneously shaming the oil, gas, and coal industries. It goes on and on with ignoring Amendments laid out in the U.S. Constitution and any mention of God in schools or on the currency and promoting the indoctrination of transgenderism and boys entering girl sports. There is a host of things these Godless Democrats push that moves us ever closer to Socialist rule. It’s where this country has gone since the election of 2020, a movement that was already well under way during two previous Obama administrations.
Spot on! Make $ when it presents itself!
Yea, this isn’t a Bull Market. We’ve been in a Bear Market [extended] for quite some time now. Probably going back to November-December 2021. Most likely a rally inside a Bear Market. What I suspect we’re witnessing here is an over-abundance of money supply stimulus accompanied by a ton of advisors in the business that are having to show their clients something by the end of calendar year 2023, or get fired!… been there many times before myself.
Anyone who had their clients in long term bonds of any kind need to get the axe immediately! That’s fundamentals 101, never buy duration when the Fed is tightening. I heard this last week that people were actually holding long-term paper – who the fuck is that stupid when rates were near zero and Inflation has eaten away 20% of all values out there? Anyway, some advisors apparently had their clients hold long term paper during this very aggressive Fed rate tightening cycle. Stupidity and ignorance not only reigns in the voting booth it also reigns across financial services. I don’t think there’s many green lights here still but I could be wrong.
Very insightful, and right on the money.
Thank you Howard for your review of my opinions here! The timing of anything as large as the U.S. economy is not an “exact science”. I like to point out when my internal alarms go off, when I see something that is not sustainable, and it usually isn’t. Zero interest rate policies have finally gotten the U.S. in some trouble, this was predicted by pundits as long ago as when the Ben Bernanke Fed first installed QE programs to drive rates down as a fix for the ills of the Great Recession. Zero interest rate policies, while they felt good at the time, weren’t healthy, either is eating a whole box of cookies in one setting, but it sure tastes good at the time! Blind optimism about the markets and the economy can last for an extended period of time before it finally runs its course and reality checks in. Re: the market crash of October 1987.