An Economy Where the Tail Keeps Wagging the Dog

An Economy Where the Tail Keeps Wagging the Dog

And what a “dog” these Democrats have turned our economy into in a span of just two years. Remember when we were producing growth clips North of 4-5% annually under Donald Trump? Didn’t take Recessionary Joe, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, along with their fellow Socialists, long to destroy it. Everyone’s heard the news by now, the United States “officially” entered into a recession with the second quarter of negative growth released this morning. And how did Wall Street react to the news? Investors seemed to celebrate the announcement – yes as the U.S. Titanic slowly sinks, instead of searching for the nearest life raft, no Wall St. decided [by golly] to hold a massive party to the very end, and party they did. Maybe they’re onto something, I mean if your personal pile of money is going into an incinerator anyway, why not party your ass off right? But Recessionary Joe’s White House Staff continues to profess that we’re [really not] in an actual recession, and we’re never going to be in a recession on his watch. 🙂 You see, Recessions don’t exist under Democrat Administrations, they only exist when Republicans are in office, because Republicans face the music, we tell the truth, be that good, bad, or ugly, whereas Democrats will duck and dodge the truth continuously. The official word out of this White House is that the U.S. economy is just stuck in a slow motion movie, that’s all. They keep harping on lagging indicators as proof – look at how many job openings we still have out there they say, never mind the fact that you would need to hold down three of them [and at the same time] just to keep pace with Joe’s 15% annual inflation rate. 🙂 That’s something the White House hopes you won’t realize until you’ve voted for all their Socialists to return to office.

I fear that it will be different this time, this recession. I think U.S. inflation can stick around for an extended period of time. Sheila Bair, a very smart lady who once headed up the FDIC as a bank regulator, and has held other important positions such as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, pointed out something today in an interview. She said, hiking short-term rates is one thing, it’s expected in this situation, as is the Federal Reserve reducing their massive [ballooned-out] balance sheet but she stated the fact that this Federal Reserve and Treasury Department are ignoring the biggest opportunity to squash inflation in its tracks is evidence of yet another major policy error. [How many times have I mentioned how this administration has created “policy” blunders in my past blog posts? Well, here’s just one more.] Sheila was referring to the fact that the Federal Reserve is not targeting the reduction of the supply of money, specifically M2. She went on to say that anytime this has been ignored in the past inflation has hung around, it’s been sticky. I think she’s right, this is how Paul Volcker squashed the last bout of U.S. hyper-inflation back in the late 1970’s, early ’80’s, he targeted M2. We have to reduce the amount of money floating around out there, tighten the supply of money instead of loosening it. This is the strongest evidence that we may be in for an extended period of higher inflation. You might be wondering which asset classes do better during periods of rising and/or high inflation levels? You may want to reach out to your personal financial advisors on that subject.

Will Democrats [Socialists] ever understand this “golden rule” for stamping out inflationary pressures? The answer is evident, never! Democrats got us into this mess but they do not have the intellect nor the training to get us back out of it. Democrats do not understand the root causes of inflation or even how to run a sustainable free and open market, or purely capitalist economy. They’re much better at planning dictatorships.

So what’s next? We could end up with a Zombie economy effectively, a walking dead economy where the Federal Reserve will need to add stimulus program after stimulus program [in the future] just to reach 1.5% annual rates of growth while inflation will remain stubbornly high, and for an extended period of time. [This is the very reason that stocks rallied in the last couple days of trading, many are now expecting the Fed to be lowering rates back down as early as next year, but how and why? They expect muted, very tepid growth because of the Democrat Party’s continuous over-regulating interfering in the activity of commerce, plus their tax increases]. Will that provide a permanent fix to relieve inflationary pressures? It won’t, it will not be enough to make us whole again, a return to the 2% annual inflation rates we experienced under Donald Trump’s Administration. We already covered the permanent fix for inflation, which Democrat lawmakers are ignoring completely. In other words, expect your spending power to continue to decay in the weeks, months, and years ahead, as long as these levels of inflation remain pervasive. I would give this “sticky” inflation scenario a better than 50% probability of where our economy could morph from here, a period of what is known as “stagflation”, characterized by a combination of high inflation and very sluggish growth. Good luck to retailers selling anything, especially those high ticket items?… but by all means, you folks keep voting these clueless Socialists into office, ya hear? LMAO!

0 0 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
5 Comments
Newest
Oldest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Jeff Page
2 years ago

These 20W bulbs and the 10W bulbs that follow them should hop thousands of dinghies and head to Cuba. People are leaving The Peoples Republic of California to dodge cartel bullets. It’s safer for them.

1
1
1
Jeff Page
2 years ago
Reply to  BNewman

That would be hilarious!

1
Jeff Page
2 years ago

Gulability: The shear number of Americans who haven’t even read a single book in basic economics astounds me. When you have no concept of Capitalism and free markets you allow government to sell you what you’re ignorance allows. It’s not recession, it’s “transition”! Yes, much more palatable, makes it easier to swallow. Economic advisor Deece even spewed out some garbage. Joe doesn’t realize ALL advisors and secretaries serve at his whim. You’re fired is allowed.
No small number: Quietly slipping by were the housing numbers. Signed contracts to purchase existing home sales dropped 20% from year ago numbers* *NAR. Pending home sales fell 8.6% on a consensus drop of 1%.
Home sales are expected to drop 13% this
year* *(NAR).
*(NAR) National Association of Realtors
This comes during a housing shortage, so there is talk now of subsidies for home builders to keep building. Never subsidies, always tax incentives.
Supply Chain: Maybe we should call it a glut when Walmart has so much inventory that they revised numbers downward for Q3 to start
dumping inventory. Electronics are a definite buy right now if you’ve always wanted that 70″ OLED for your bathroom. Best Buy is suffering with the same inventories. You can have surround sound installed in your bathroom by them. Electronics require semiconductors but, low end which are 40nm, not the high-end 5nm/7nm needed in today’s smartphones and computers. Soon it will be 3nm, slightly larger than a single strand of DNA using a technology called EUV by ASML. Tons of chips out there.
Inflation Reduction Act: Also known as the Laughable Act or the ESG Act raises corporate taxes…”The last thing you want to do is raise taxes in a recession” ~Barack Obama.
Those following ESG principles need to know, it takes 4X the energy to charge your Tesla than it does to run your A/C. Imagine how much that will draw from our grid from the nat gas powered turbines, the cleanest, cheapest and most reliable source of energy known. Imagine the cost! I’m still waiting for my cost/benefit analysis from the GREEN GOBLINS.
This is regulatory insanity.
Transitory Inflation: If not the greatest lie on earth, it must rank up there. Yesterday’s Core PCE Price Index came in at 0.6% (MoM) vs the 0.3% increase for May. This is the highest read since 1982. Inflation is now compounding so MoM numbers need as much, if not more scrutiny than (YoY).
Transitory Transition: Err recession; what’s it called now? Textbook definition of recession, back to back quarters of negative GDP growth.
It’s that simple! 2Q GDP would have come in much lower if not for a timely order (June) for $10B military aircraft, boosting Durable Goods.
Suspicious timing, I think so! Note: Durable Goods had a consensus estimate of-0.5% and came in at +1.9%. This number will come down in the forward months* *Pantheon Macroeconomics.
Total Control: having a single woke party holding both houses and The White House eliminates checks and balances. See Reagan/O’Neil, Clinton/Gingrich. Things got done.
What we know:
GDP is weaker than reported (recession)
Inflation remains high (Stagflation)
ESG Act, $700B in additional spending
ESG Act. Hike in corporate tax, passed on to you. Drives up prices and slows growth.
Homebuilders: are already cutting back
Productivity: -6.7% due to high input costs
Leadership: Socialist with the fiat currency,
worst in U.S. History

Bottom line: we are in Stagflation, welcome back to the 70’s. This will get much worse and we are seeing a commodity rebound. Bonds are smart, they’re pointing to weakness in the economy. This will have a global impact.
We do need a Volker stomp to wipe out M2. Reagan told Volker, “I’ll take the heat”! Do you see that happening with the deniers? SPR is being drained, so far 4 million barrels to Europe
1 million barrels to China. SPR is to be used for war, first responders, necessary vehicles for delivery of goods, not to save an election.
Don’t confuse the stock market with the economy, bull runs happen in bear markets just as corrections happen in bull markets.

1