If you also like to hear and discuss what no one else is discussing then you’re a lot like me. This next topic should be on everyone’s radar screen, especially if they have skin in the game meaning they have placed their own money “at risk” in financial markets. The term Black Swan was first used by some financial author a decade or two ago to describe a very low probability event, or what a strategist would refer to as “tail risk”. But still a risk having substantial ramifications, either for the American economy or the financial markets, or both. If you pull up a diagram of a normal probability distribution you’ll notice that by far higher probability events occur normally around the middle, or the fat part of any bell curve. While Black Swans describe events located on the tails. These are considered to have a probability of occurence only about 2-3% of the time. But Black Swans do happen on occasion and they’re always “unexpected” when they do. For this reason, Black Swans cause major disruptions. Remember the real estate and subsequent banking crisis debacle that crashed many a major financial center back 12 years ago? That was a Black Swan few saw coming but when it hit our nation was rocked to its financial core. Making us question whether the subsequent Great Recession would turn into another Great Depression before we could climb back out. And by the way, how did this event even happen? Suffice to say, a ton of questions needed answering by leaders within Washington, D.C., the Federal Reserve, and our major U.S. banks.

The Black Swan I’m concerned with today is this scenario – one day we wake up to find that Joe Biden can no longer serve as President due to illness, cognitive incapacity, death, etc. And we are told that Kamala Harris now has to take over the helm as President of the United States. How do you think that’s going to go over with 90% of the American public? That answer is what I’m concerned about here because it won’t, it can’t. The first thing that’s going to happen is there will more than likely be a meltdown in financial markets. I would expect an extremely sharp correction, if not an all-out crash, in our financial markets with repurcussions reaching all the way to Europe. Because not only is this person (Kamala) unqualified for the task at hand, she is disliked and untrusted and rightly so by most Americans. Just last week she claimed the largest threat to this country is the Constitution. Kamala still thinks our system of government is a “Democracy”, never once mentioning what it actually is – a Constitutional Republic with majority rule, that right there is the original America. Need I say the same America that made us the strongest country the world has ever seen? Yes, that one Kamala. So I’m not sure what planet she’s living on but I sure wish there was a way to get her out of our federal government and on her way to her next destination. Until then friends, we have a huge Black Swan looming.

Given Joe Biden’s cognitive condition and advanced age of 80 I think the probability of this event occurring during Biden’s first Presidential term is quite a bit larger than the customary Black Swan probability (of 2-3%)… that’s the bad news, well that along with the fact that I see nothing good resulting from having an untrained, unknowledgeable, wacko-Leftist Progressive running our country along with its intricate foreign policy(ies). One last thing, my forecast doesn’t change should Biden be forced to step down from his very weak leadership position, unless – unless it happens after such a time that Republicans can take back control of the House of Representatives and/or the Senate or both? Now should that happen in November of 2022 and Joe Biden is still in office then his White House Administration, under any other name, becomes powerless and America has dodged yet another bullet. 😉